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ES Daily:  We have managed to stay above the 200 MA, but have not officially closed above the 1/6/2009 high of 942.75.  We are also finding support from the recent 5/7 high of 929.50. 

This may be hard to see, but the 1.272 ratio is popping up often in recent moves. 

 

Areas to expect reaction for Monday: 

• 917 (200 MA)
• 920 (micro 1.272 fib ext down)
• 929.50 (recent 5/7 high)
• 934.50 (recent pivot and bottom of fork)
• 942.75 (1/6/09 high, near tomorrow's PP)
• 956.25 (micro 1.272 fib ext)
• 963-965 (micro 1.618 fib ext)

Homework

Daily ES:  The the open market has not started yet and already we've already hit a target.  You can see the measured fib extension, just using the past 4 days, gives us the 956 level.  The next higher level is 965.  I threw on a near-term fork to see how long it holds.  The thin, dark blue fork is the one we've had on for weeks.

Homework

Monday is the first day of the new month.  Therefore, as per my trading rules, I will avoid gap plays tomorrow.

We are very close to the 200 dma once again.  It is currently at 925.50.  This is also right where the daily fork's median line is.  The ES is close to a double top, but the NQ is already at a double top (thanks for the heads up Oscar).  The rule goes, sell a double top, buy a double bottom.  Even though the ES's indicators are bullish, the NQ leads the ES, so we can't ignore that situation.

Based on the resistance I'm seeing, I feel we are at a "do or die" area. If we fall from here in the overnight action, I am going to expect resistance if we return up here at the 925 area again.  If we rally above 927.75 (Friday's high), then I feel that opens the door for an even higher move.

Rally UP resistance areas: 929.50 (recent pivot high), 933.25 (1.272 fib extension 3/06 lows to 1/28 highs), 942.75 (1/06 high)

Dip DOWN support areas: Gann levels outlined below, 903 (descending fork), 894.50 (ascending fork) 

Below are the relavant Gann Levels for tomorrow.  Since we are so close to the top pivot (929.50) there are not many Gann levels between here and there.  Note, my script is saying "5/32", which should be "6/01".  Looks like I have a bug! 

Homework

After a Choppy, boring day of going sideways, the market decided to have an afternoon rally.  As mentioned yesterday, the 905 area offered support and the bullish bias held up.

The brown line shows the fork that acted as support for today.  The 200 MA (light blue MA) stopped price action cold, which eventually caused price to close below the median line of the ascending fork.  This close above the fork is another bullish sign.  Monday may give us some "buyer's remorse" and pull us back down into the fork, but I'm not counting on it.  

For some weird reason, the bulls just keep coming...

Homework

Tomorrow is the last trading day in May.  Below is a daily ES chart.  Not only is price trapped in a channel (as shown in this pic), but it is getting the squeeze between two forks (the three ascending blue lines and the brownish line that price is currently sitting right on top of.  

My daily indicators are looking bullish, so we may see a pop out of this fork.  The 905 area (current area) should offer support.  The median line (middle of the three, parallel blue lines (fork)) is around 921 (Gann level at 922, and 5/20 high at 923.50) should offer some resistance if we get up there.

If we stay within the fork, we may find resistance at the 905 area (current area) and support at 890-892, the bottom of the fork and yesterday's open.  Nearby is the 889.25 Gann level (as shown in final image).

Barring the idea of the 905 area containing this, I have a 50% pullback at 900.25, which also corresponds to the next Gann level we run into.  If we find reaction there, the target for that move is at 912.75. The next measured pullback is at 897.50, with a target of 914 (also corresponds to a Gann level at 914.25 and the 5/27 high).

UPDATE: The afterhour rally pulled the "900.25 50% pullback" up to 902.50 (target 918.50). Similarly the "897.50" was pulled up to 900 (target 920), which is also our PP.  I added the chart below to illustrate.

Homework

After a very choppy morning, the bears took control and pulled price down with a vengence.  Looking at a 15min chart (24H data), we pulled back to the 0.618 level (891).  See chart below.  The fact that the 50% didn't hold makes me weary of a rally.  This 618 level hasn't broken hard enough for me to completely dismiss the possiblity.  However, at the moment, I'm bear minded till proven otherwise. If we rally, the initial target is at 922.75.  I also have a Gann level at 922, which could provide more resistance if we get there.

As a first indicator, I am going to watch to see if this 893.25 holds and the down trend continues.  This is also a Gann level (see final image below)

Homework

Last night's prediction was right on.  See last post. 

Notes for Wednesday: 

• If price gets that high, expect resistance at 922 (Gann level) to 923.50 (5/20 high), then 936.25 (1.272 fib extension of last move down, see Chart #2).  However, I feel 914 area might be it.  See chart #1 and #2 below.
• Take note of the larger 50% retracement at 895.50 (target of 922.75).
• Support:  24H PP at 898.75.  PIT PP at 888.25.

CHART #1: Below is a daily chart of the ES and I'm looking at the two movements/waves indicated by the blue arrows.  As you can see, this latest wave is 0.786 or 78.6% of the last wave (fib level).  The flip side of this is if our current wave extended higher than the last wave.  See Chart #2 below.

Homework, Lesson

Very interesting day!  As you can see from the 15min chart (normal trading hours only) below, we made a perfect 50% pullback and now have a target at 914.50.  

After hours, I'm looking for a 50% retracement to 906.75 with the same target as above (follow the arrows).  You can also see on the chart below the 914.25 Gann level, which matches up with our target above (with an initial target at 912). 

UPDATE: It pulled back a little more than expected (905.25, close!) and after hitting 914.00 (1-2 ticks from target), price fell off 8 points.  There was also a 5 point reaction at the 912 area on the way up.

Homework

Hopefully this won't be too confusing, but I find this very interesting!  As mentioned in yesterday's homework, the bullish entry was from the 50%-61.8% pullback area (831.75-825).  Wednesday's low was 831.50(!) and had a 20 points rally right up to the cross of the 0.618 pullback (short, 850) and the descending trendline (light grey line).  See chart below.  If we do fall from here, the target is at the -0.236 level (824.50), which overlaps the 0.618 level from the original long.  Amazing!  This tells me that even if we pullback from here, higher highs are still possible, as long as that 825 area holds.

Below is the same 120 min chart, showing a perfect 1.272 fib extension from the last rally in this pullback.  This tells us that this little rally may be done.

 

 

 

So for Thursday, I would like to see us pullback from this 850 level down to 825. If the overnight data shows us rallying above the current 850 area, then I am bullish and looking for 875 (as the first chart above shows).

Homework

The ES finished just shy of the target of 865 by less than 4 points on Monday (see chart below).  Unless something changes, I am going to treat this as a "target hit" and the pullback we saw Tuesday wasn't surprising.

Bullish: a 50%-61.8% pullback puts us at long from 832-825. (As of this writing, we bounced off 833.)  In addition: 

• Gann level at 829.50.  Right in the middle of this range.
  
• Today's close had a 50% pullback with a target of 832.25.  At the start of the above range.
• 24H S1 level at 831.75
• Targets: 861, 875

Bearish: looking for a maximum pullback to 847.25-850.  Things to consider: 

• Gann Levels at 844 and 847.25
• The 24H PP at 844.75
• There is always the old 837 level to deal with on the way up
• Targets: 829.50, 816, 803.75, 788 

Homework

Homework

ES- Below is a daily ES chart.  A week ago I drew the gray line we bounced off of on Friday.  This line is equidistant to blue line as the light-grey line is above the blue line.

The chart also shows a couple targets at 724 and 669.  However, we may see a return to 812, 826, or perhaps the ascending blue line in the 840's before getting there.   In a very weak market, we may not see 800 again before falling. 

Homework, Lesson

ES - A full week of down days?  The Dow is how at a double bottom with the 11/2008 lows.  Will we bounce or take a plunge into the abyss?

Looking to short 786-788 area (50% pullback and 180+90 gann level).  If market is weak, 777.50 (lower gann level 180+90+30)

• Initial target 770.25 (1.236 projection off 50% pullback to 786)
• Extreme low target of 759.  (360 gann and trendchannel)

Homework

Homework

ES - Wow, Tuesday gave one of the smallest daily ranges we've seen in weeks.  Without much progression in either direction, yesterday's analysis stays (cautiously) true.  However, a big factor recently is a descending trendline, which is now at 827-829 on Thursday.

6E- It looks as if the Euro is currently facing a symmetrical triangle (light grey lines) within a larger, daily symmetrical triangle (brown lines converging from the top and bottom).

Homework

ES - Very critical day tomorrow.  Tomorrow is the date mentioned in this blog post from about two weeks ago.  Will we finally break the lower trend line and on to new lows?  Today's action so far (little green bar) is trapped within that small wedge.  I'm looking for a move up to the descending trendline (shorting approximately 833) and then fall below the lower trendline.  Target 812, then 797, then 782.25.  Support at 827 and 819.75.   

Homework

ES:

Homework

ES - Slacker!  What is up with me not posting my homework?!  No excuse.

From yesterday's close, the first level of resistance shown below is 830.50.  Today's high is 830.50!  On the daily chart, we have the large wedge forming at around 814.  Coincidentally, this is one of the support levels below.  A major level that has cropped up many times before is the 800 area (also below).

UY Traders! 

Homework

ES - After a very interesting day on Thursday (as detailed in this blog entry) I feel more downside coming.  I'm looking to short 850.50.  If this level doesn't hold, we have the diagonal trendline and resistance at 858-861 area.

UPDATE:  I'm not sure why I didn't completely write my thoughts down, but a 90° pullback from the close was at 949.50, which is concluence with the 850.50 mentioned above.  So enter 849.50-850.50 with a target was the full 360° move down at 832.  We got very close to both of these enter and target areas (enter price within 2 ticks, and target within a point).  Even though these weren't exactly touched, I will treat the price movement as completed the 360° cycle.  Thus, I am looking for a pullback to the 180° line (858.75) which is also in the area of the diagonal trendline mentioned above at the 861 area.

6E - A full 360° move down is at 1.2863.  We got within 5 ticks of this level and now floating sideways.  A 45° pullback from the current low is at 1.2925, where we may find some resistance for a push further downward.  However, the big downward level to break is 1.2860 area. 

Homework

ES - We made a perfect 360° rise (874.75) (See chart below).  Thus, from this high, we have a long entry at the 180° pullback at 856.25 area (see chart).  As of this writing, you can see we are now bouncing off a 90° pullback (360-90 = 180+90), almost to the tick.  As noted in this blog entry, we will have some resistance on the way up from a daily ascending trendline around 877.  This level is also very close to the 879.50 level, which is 45° up from Wednesday's high (see chart below), thus offering additional resistance in this area.  Next level of resistance is 360°+90° at 884.25 (also, noted on chart).  Once we get up to the 880's we will be getting very close to the ultimate goal of 887-894 as noted in this blog entry.

6E -  As noted in Wednesday's homework, after hitting our goal at 1.3316, we made a perfect 180° fall down to 1.30900.  After a 45° pullback, we hit the lows once again.  If this fall continues, my targets are 1.3017 or possibly down to 1.2927.

Homework

ES - Today we had a whirlwind session of extreme highs and lows but keeping an upward bias.  I am cautiously looking at this bias to continue, even in the face of negative news.  In other words, good news will be exaggerated and bad news will be muted.  In the end, I feel we may reach 887-894 area after the next 8-11 sessions, as illustrated in this blog entry.

6E - As with the ES, the parallel channel was broken to the upside, thus I am looking to (cautiously) buy the dips. 

Homework

ES - On Friday, we made a perfect 360° move upwards (to the tick), then pulled back to the 180° line (817.75 area).  Before continuing down, I am looking for a 90° pullback (826-827 area).  However, if the market acts especially weak, we may only get to 824 (see strong level below).  Initial target being the 800 area, then 795, then 767.50.

6E -  From the chart below, I am looking for a pullback to the 45° area (1.2968 - 1.2971), then a move down to 180° (1.2798 - 1.2801)

Homework

ES - I'm unsure how much we will actually rally before falling.  I don't feel like it will be very much.  The 824-825 area may be it.

6E - Below is a daily chart of the Euro.  Looks like today's range was exactly a 45° move.  When the next day's bar forms, the descending trendline will be around 1.3030.

Homework

ES - We have already made over a 45° recovery since Tuesday's low, so the next major selling level is at 90° or 826 (see chart).  We also have a major resistance level at 824 (360°, measured from the top of this down move).  However, before we get there, we may run into some resistance at 814-816 (the diagonal trendline).  See levels on chart below. 

• Sell 824-826, target 814-816 then 793-795
  

Homework

Turning in my homework late... ;] 

ES - UPDATE - Changed to use a better intraday pivot.  

6E - On the daily, we had a perfect 45° pullback to 1.3362 before falling again.  An important level (from the levels below) is the 360° move down (1.2897) from that recent high.

Homework

ES - The day's action had a bullish feel to it and feel we may have an up day tomorrow.  Can't always go straight down. ;]  I'm looking at a max high in the high 860's.

6E - Euro.  A few days ago, I mentioned we would hit the area we go to on Thursday (ascending trendline and the level that intersects it).  Like the ES, we had a big rebound off it.  Will it continue?  If so, I think the max high for Friday would be 1.3402.

I am still not clear on what the daily "close" should be on the euro and if I am using it correctly.  If not, then my pivot calculations are definitely off and some of these "stars" are off in the process. 

Homework

ES - Boy was I wrong!  When the market is very near an important level, the market will either bounce off it or break hard through it.  I forgot about the latter option!  Looks like down we go!  As you can see, there are some big levels on the way down.

6E - The Euro.  Still floating downard within the decending wedge.  I'm seeing some big support at 1.3038 and at 1.3000 area. 

Homework

ES - Yesterday played out beautifully.  I misspoke yesterday (or mislabeled, I should say) about the bounce level that I was expecting on Tuesday.  I said the level was a 360° move from the high.  Actually, the line was the 360° move UP from the lower pivot.  In any case, that level was the level I was expecting a bounce, which is exactly what we saw (L13, 858.25, in the chart below).  Coincidently (?), the very next level, L14 at 873, was the high area of the day.

Even though we are in a bear market, my feelings haven't changed from yesterday, that we could still see a bounce.  Tuesday's "doji day" could be an indication of just that.  I am looking at the 882.25 level for a possible bounce and thus sell level (which also crosses our decending trendline).  A very strong up move could bring us to the next level, 887.75.

ES Homework:  

Homework

ES - The ES is nearing an area where we could bounce; a 360° move down from last Tuesday's high.  We are already seeing a sign of it from the end of Monday and the overnight action.  So, time to be careful and see what the overnight action gives us for a hint of direction.

We have been riding the 873 level for the past few hours; definitely causing some resistance.  This is a level to watch for in the overnight action. 

Homework

ES - We broke out of the lower trendline last week.  If we can re-test the bottom, we may have a good entry for a fall.  I estimate the lower trendline to be around 890.  In the levels below, we have some confluence around 892.75.  Lucky us!  However, the market may be too weak and only reach 887.75 before continuing the fall (see levels below).

6E - The Euro was hit hard on Friday and seems to be continuing downward (as I type this), however, I am cautious around these levels it is coming upon.  1.3340 and/or 1.3305 may hinder the fall.  Not to mention the levels in my homework below.  The more I study the Euro, the more I like it!  It seems to behave very well to these major levels and, in particular, levels I can generate on the fly on lower timeframes for more precise entries.

UPDATE - 12:08 CST: Homework updated with more accurate intra-day pivots. It's a bit after the fact, but selecting the correct daily and intra-day pivots (that get fed into the homework script) are critical.  The new levels line up SO much better with today's action.  A single tick difference from a major turning point in some cases.

Homework