Homework for Tuesday 2008.12.02 and Wednesday 2008.12.03

3. December 2008
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I have been sick the past couple days and was at an all day seminar yesterday, so I have been away from my analysis.  Therefore, this analysis is admitedly after the fact.

Summary  - 

ESZ8 - As we mentioned in Monday's homework, the move we saw was a compression of the previous down move (11/5 and 11/6 gave two big down moves.  12/1 gave us one very large down move).  Based on 11/7, there was a ~32 point up day. Well, Tuesday 12/2 gave us a ~32 up day.  Amazing!

Based on 11/10, we retraced to somewhere between 50% and 61.8% of the initial fall, then fell once again.  Today 12/3, the 61.8% retracement of Monday puts us right at 865, which is a level that has proved important many times in the past.  The market rallied to 864.75 and fell 30+ points to 833.75! So, the first half of today completed the mirror of 11/10.  (See fib retracements on the two bars)  Then the second half of the day...

I was expecting a small rally, perhaps to 849, then new lows (thus beginning to mirror 11/11).  Instead, we got a rally all the way up to 873.75!  Can't always be right.  However, 870-75 was our decending trend line (green line).  Having guts would make you sell that 870 area and hold it into the overnight trading, as I am expecting this line to hold and mark a location to sell tomorrow (Otherwise, the ascending trendline above at 878-880... or the less likely 897 area (big red line)).

 

Homework

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