Where to next?

28. January 2009
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ES -  A chart was brought to my attention by a friend and I feel it is very interesting.  It seems we keep making 0.618 fib pullbacks and it is creating a nice wedge.  We just broke out of our parallel channel to the up side, so perhaps our next target is 887-894 near the top of that descending line?  I hate to be bullish in a bear market, but we can't always go straight down.  After hitting the wedge one last time, perhaps that will give us our next leg down to lower lows.

UPDATE:  I updated the chart to show the bounce as expected.  Oscar (from LiveWithOscar.com) brought to my attention the top of the channel we are hitting.  Also cooresponds to a Gann Level at 871 (180+45).  

Where to?  Scenarios: 

  1. Perhaps a 45° or 90° pullback (860 or 848), then up to the targets at 887-894.  You can see how well this lines up with this new horizontal line. 
  2. Upward move continues above the top of the wedge in the next 2-3 days (target of 916), then a hard fall below the bottom of the wedge around the 0.750 time level (Wednesday, 2009.02.11) and on to new lows.  1/29 is key.

 

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