Market Update, 2009.09.18

18. September 2009
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ES Daily: Have we finally reached the top of the top?  Below is a possible Elliot Wave pattern that shows some great respect of fib levels.  These projections are taken of the small "wave 1" shown below.  Divergence continues on the oscillator as we go up.

 
 
 
ES Daily: As shown in the last post, the last rally stopped right at the 1.618 fib projection (see blue arrow).  Now see next chart...
 
 
 
ES Daily: Using the same technique, the latest rally went right to the 1.618 projection level once again; right at that 4.25 fib projection shown in the first chart above. 

 
 
ES Daily:  If you are a fan of trend lines, they seem to have worked well. 
 
 
 
YM Weekly: Below is a possible Elliot Wave move down.  We are currently right on top of the 50% retracement of "Wave 3" with a potential target.
 
 
 
YM Daily:  Looking closer at the recent daily moves, we are at the 2.0 fib projection of the last pullback (see long, blue arrows).  Intermediate fib projection levels (1.272 and 1.618) line up will with the smaller pullbacks.  Like the ES, there is continued divergence on the oscillator (not shown) with this recent rally.
 
 

$TRAN Weekly:  The Transports have broken the 50% level (measured from the all time high), however, they have not broken the 0.618 level quite yet.  There seems to be a nice trend line which could show some resistance (red line) as well as resistance from the previous low back from Jan 2008 (blue arrow).
 
 
 
$BANK Weekly: The same resistance level mentioned in the last market update continues to be respected. 
 
 
 
ZB Daily: The 30 yr bonds still seems to be struggling with the larger 50% fib retracement.  However, we keep seeing higher lows, the respect of a 50% support level, and a target above.  That 121 area is an important area to watch.  A rise in bonds should follow a sell off in ES/YM.
 
 
 
CL Weekly: Similar to bonds, Light Crude is struggling with a 50% resistance level.  Due to the long, steep fall of crude, the fib retracement is taken from lows to lows.  In this case, the first significant low (low of 8/15/2008) to the major low in Jan 2009.  You can also see a nice trendline giving support and thus causing a wedge to form with that 50% level.  A pop higher next week may be in store.  This would not be good for the ES/YM.
 
 
 
6E Weekly:  The triangle shown in the last market update broke out to the upside.  Some potential near term resistance levels are shown below.  These are the 9/22/2008 high (blue arrow), the 1.5 fib projection of the initial wave up off the first pullback (see red, horizontal line), and simple trend lines.  This makes the 1.4800-1.4850 an area to watch. 
 
 
 
IYM Weekly: (Basic Materials) Coming up on a 50% retracement from the all time high.  The 200 sma is also floating right on this 50% line (not shown).  Resistance?
 
 

ZG Weekly: Gold is double topping with the March high.  Also, there seems to be a nice Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.  However, this isn't always a bullish sign.  Also, notice we seem to have a bit of divergence in the 3/10 oscillator. 
 
 
 
 
 
Good Hunting Traders!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Market Update

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