Market Update, 2009.10.19

19. October 2009
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ES Daily: After rallying off the 1.272 fib extension on 10/2, we went right to the 1.272 fib extension to the long side (blue arrows).  Friday gave us a great reversal off that area.  Monday should tell us if we are to break higher and out of this channel or back down to the bottom of the channel (red arrow).

 

$INDU Daily:  The Dow hit a similar target as the ES, as well as hitting the underside of the rising wedge (red lines). Careful of a correction from here.

 
 
$NDX Daily: The NASDAQ didn't pop to new highs, but instead hit a double top.  Also, ripe for a correction.
 
 
 
$TRAN Daily: The Transports also hit a double top.  If the NASDAQ and the Transports are considered leaders, then it makes sense they are hitting similar targets at the same time.  Also notice the 1/22/08 low is still serving as resistance.
 
 
 
$BANK Daily:  The banking index is also considered a leader.  However, $BANK seems to be trapped in a wedge (bullish flag?) after bouncing off the 50% retracement. 
 
 
 
6E Daily: The Euro keeps bumping up to its target and has yet to break through to the upside nor down. I am still expecting a reversal, but time is an enemy.
 
 
 
CL Daily: Crude made a perfect ABC pullback (where A=C) and rallied to new highs.  Currently, CL is hitting the 1.272 fib ext target at 78.72 area, so a correction wouldn't be unexpected.

 
 
DBC Daily: The Commodities ETF made a very similar pullback as CL, but hasn't quite reached its 1.272 target at 24.31. 
 
 
 
DBA Daily: The Agriculture ETF has hit its upper trend line, which wouldn't be surprising to break to the upside.
 
 
 
ZB Daily: The Bonds hit its 1.272 target (blue arrows), as well as hitting a double top (horizontal red line), the 200 sma, and the top of the trend channel.  So, it's not surprising to see a pullback after that.  Bonds are now hitting the bottom of the trend channel and looking to retest highs (green arrow).  Bonds rising fits well with the US markets ready for a correction.
 
 
 
 

Market Update

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